Badger, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

927
FXAK69 PAFG 152249
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
249 PM AKDT Fri May 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures look to remain mild this weekend and into next week
for most areas south of the Brooks Range as the overall weather
pattern will change very little. Unfortunately for the North
Slope this means a continuation of late winter temps and a return
to brisk easterly winds. As for precipitation, it will remain
scattered at best as the main storm track stays to the south. We
will however see occasional rounds of stronger winds affecting
higher terrain and mountain passes this weekend and into next week
as disturbances shift north over the region.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warming conditions expected through this weekend with highs in
  the mid or upper 60s with southerly flow over the Alaska Range
  and clearer skies possible.

- Gusty winds are possible for the Alaska Range passes beginning
  Saturday morning and last through the weekend. Wind gusts as
  high as 60 mph are possible, especially Sunday morning.

- Areas north of the Alaska Range are currently quite dry. Any
  showers that will occur within the next few days are likely to
  be isolated due to drier air in the lower levels.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warming temperatures are expected the next few days, with highs
  rising into the mid to upper 50s and lows 60s across the
  Western Interior and the Interior Seward Peninsula.

- Generally dry conditions are expected for the next few days with
  only scattered showers possible for portions of the YK Delta and
  Seward Peninsula. Chances for precipitation will be more likely
  on Saturday for the YK Delta.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- High temperatures on the North Slope will range from the mid 20s
  to the lower 30s through the weekend, potentially reaching
  around 40 in the Southwestern Brooks Range.

- Mainly dry conditions expected to prevail across the region for
  the next several days.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The general pattern across Alaska remains in place with a large
upper low located over the southern Bering Sea while ridging
prevails from the southern Beaufort Sea through the Yukon and
along the Canadian west coast. While this pattern tends to focus
the most impactful weather to our south and west, there will be a
few things to watch in the short term period that includes the
upcoming weekend.

One subtle feature is an Arctic upper low that is currently
traversing through the mean ridge from it`s current position over
the Yukon Flats enroute to a position along the Northwest Arctic
Coast where it will become absorbed by the primary Bering trough.
This is a very dry feature which is temporarily preventing much
moisture from moving north through the Interior, thus keeping any
precipitation limited to scattered convection at best. By Sunday
a rather strong 975 mb surface low will track into the southern
Bering and manage to draw additional moisture northwards,
allowing for better precip chances across the western zones
including the YK Delta, Seward Penn and portions of the Western
Interior.

Further east strong southerly flow will become focused
perpendicular to the Alaska Range. As the upper low over the
Bering sends shortwave energy north over the Alaska Range, models
show a 50 knot jet streak at 700 mb which is close to mountain top
level. This will begin to produce very strong winds through the
passes with the orientation of the flow favoring Windy pass for
the strongest winds. This will also set up a decent Chinook event
for the Tanana Valley north of the range further dying the
boundary layer while enhancing temps, all of which will lead to an
enhanced fire weather threat across part of the middle Tanana
Valley.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper-level pattern is a bit messy this afternoon, with the
relatively weak features producing generally benign weather across
our area this afternoon. However, we will be transitioning into a
pattern which is more impactful, particularly for the Interior.

Through the rest of the day Friday, winds should be light but
occasionally gusty as they mix down in the evening. In the
Interior, winds will generally be out of the northeast, turning
northerly in the Central and Eastern Interior and northwesterly
into Delta Junction. Farther west, winds will be easterly. Chances
for precipitation are near zero in the Interior where dry upper-
level air is allowing evening cumulus to develop. In the western
half of Alaska, there are slightly better chances for showers this
evening and even a stray thunderstorm or two in the Seward
Peninsula. Temperatures will peak in the 60s and the dry weather
will put relative humidities in the Interior in the 20s.

This weekend, the low over the Aleutians will press up against a
ridge building over Canada, resulting in a pattern that is directing
southerly flow across the Alaska Range and into the Interior. The
largest impact will be strong winds through the Alaska Range passes,
particularly Isabel Pass and up towards Delta Junction. In fact, a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for Delta Junction for Saturday and
Sunday for wind gusts up to 50 mph and RHs in the low 20s. Winds
will strengthen slightly in the rest of the Interior, predominantly
easterly with stronger gusts in the evening. Temperatures will get
up into in the mid 60s for most spots in the Interior and we may
even see a peak into 70 in the Yukon Flats on Sunday. Relative
humidities may get into the teens in Interior Valleys and the Yukon
Flats. Conditions will fair slightly better in the Western Interior
where moisture advection is higher and chances for showers are more
likely. Thunderstorms are not expected this weekend, apart from
along the AlCan border in the higher terrain around Fortymile
Country on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Yukon River:
The ice jam at the Yuki river, which had remained in place for
nearly two and a half days, finally released Thursday afternoon
sending a strong surge of ice and water downstream toward Galena.
The release triggered rapid downstream breakup with rapidly
changing conditions along the river. The initial surge carried
large intact sheets through Bishop Rock, which has reduced the
threat of an ice jam forming there. Late Thursday evening the main
ice run was seen moving steadily past Galena.

At Koyukuk, ice was moving steadily past the community while water
levels continued to rise and back up the Koyukuk River, however no
significant flood has been reported as of this morning.

Water levels are expected to continue rising in both Galena and
Koyukuk as large volumes of water previously locked up behind the
ice jam continues to move downstream. The River Watch team reports
that water levels behind the previous jam are comparable to the
2023 breakup season. Thus it is expected that minor flooding will
remain possible in Galena and Koyukuk in the coming days. Thus
flood watches will remain in effect for these areas.

Further upstream, high water continues to move downstream from
Stevens Village through Tanana.

Chena River:
The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with
higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than
normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information:
Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...(Tuesday through Friday)
The persistent upper low over the Bering will still be in place to
start the period. However the blocking ridge extending from the
high Arctic into the Yukon will be breaking down a bit with
ridging shifting a bit farther east through the period. This
should allow for troughing to extend further east across southern
and central Alaska with additional storm centers making their way
into the Gulf late in the period. This pattern will continue to
support a generally southerly flow pattern for the central and
eastern parts of the state with occasional shortwaves tracking
north into the region. Strongest surface winds will remain across
the West Coast closer to the main storm center. In addition east
winds will be picking up again along the Arctic Coastline as the
Arctic surface high will be re-strengthening as well. As for
precipitation chances, they will remain the highest from the YK
Delta into the Seward Penn thanks to proximity to the low. However
southerly transport of moisture will allow for scattered
convection throughout the Interior on a near daily basis as energy
pivots north through the main trough.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ829.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
&&

$$

Laney/Troyke