Badger, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

682
FXAK69 PAFG 180848
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1248 AM AKDT Sun May 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather pattern shift is underway for the Mainland as a cold
upper low moves inland from the West Coast. This trough will stall
out over the Central and Western Interior, bringing cooler and
damper weather along with it, with increasing clouds and showers,
as well as a stray thunderstorm, to the E Interior. Snow makes its
triumphant return to the Brooks Range and Arctic, with several
inches of snowfall expected for parts of the Central Brooks Range
and E Arctic over several days.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
Clouds have infiltrated the Interior from the western low, with
showers expected to expand east today, along with isolated
thunderstorms over higher elevation Interior terrain. Temps will
be trending down through Tue as clouds and cooler westerly winds
move in. A better chance for heavier rain showers develops Monday
as a Gulf of AK low interacts with a trough of low pressure over
the Central Interior. Exactly where the heavier showers will be
remains uncertain Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over
the E Interior through Tuesday.

- Increasing clouds, chances for showers, and isolated
  thunderstorms are expected for parts of the E Interior through
  Tue.

- Temps slowly cool through Tue.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A cold low will strengthen today as it moves from the West Coast
into the W Interior through Mon night. North winds behind the low
will continue to bring down cool arctic air through Tue along the
coast, with north winds to 30 mph at times. Rain showers will mix
to snow over the NW Arctic and Chukchi Coast through Mon, with
minimal accumulations expected. Rain showers will remain possible
into Tue over the Yukon Valley.

- Colder north winds develop over the West Coast later today and
  will persist into Tue, as strong as 30 mph at times.

- Rain and snow showers over the N Interior and NW Arctic are
  expected through Mon.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Low stratus clouds and some locally dense fog continue this
morning over parts of the Arctic Coast. This should begin to
dissipate after today as an arctic air regime moves into the coast
and mixes up the stratus and fog. An upper low will slowly move
from the NW Arctic eastward through Tue, bringing with it periods
of snowfall, locally heavy at times in the Brooks Range. Snow
accumulations look to be around 2 to 4 inches from Umiat to the E
Arctic, with 4 to 10 inches for parts of the Brooks Range. Periods
of heavy snow will be possible over the Dalton Hwy beginning late
Sun night through Monday. We will be issuing a Special Weather
Statement to highlight this.

- Dense fog over coastal areas ends today.

- Accumulating snow moves from west to east through Tuesday, with
  several inches of snow expected over the Brooks Range and parts
  of the E Arctic southwest toward Umiat.

- We will be issuing a Special Weather Statement to highlight
  accumulating snowfall along the Dalton Hwy Corridor late Sun
  through Mon.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
There is a 535 dam upper low currently centered over the Seward
Peninsula but extending all along the West Coast. There is a cool
front extending from the Yukon Valley north into the Chukchi Sea.
There is a weak ridge aloft over the SE portion of AK extending
through the E Interior. There is a 513 dam arctic low from 80N all
the way down to the N Chukchi Sea. Extensive stratus and patchy
dense fog still covers parts of the Bering Coast and the E Arctic
Coast. The trough out west will gradually shift east over the next
few days, bringing clouds and cooler temps, along with showers to
the E Interior, as well as accumulating snow to the Brooks
Range/Arctic. A blend of all models was favored to capture the
overall pattern.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum RHs will be on the rise with increased clouds and showers
over the next few days. The biggest chance will be Monday and
Tuesday with increased chances for wetting rains into the E
interior including FNSB, as well as more damp air moving in from
the west. Isolated wet thunder today is possible over the higher
elevations north and east of Fairbanks, and will remain over the E
Interior Mon and Tue. Overall coverage/prob of thunder looks best
on Monday, over the E Interior from the Yukon- Tanana Uplands
down to the SE Interior. Minimum RH is pushing above 40 % most
areas by Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River continues to hold sections of thermally degraded
in-place ice between Beaver and Tanana. These limited sections are
slowly breaking up and will continue to create ice runs they are
pushed out. Elsewhere, gradual rises are expected across the
Upper Chena Basin as temps slowly warm.

- Some ice has come down the Buckland River and water levels have
  dropped at least by 2 feet as per latest reports Sat. There is
  a concern that ice stuck in the shallow areas upriver release,
  then get stuck downriver which could then jam up and cause
  flooding.

- With plentiful snow left to melt in the Buckland Basin, there is
  potential for flooding if ice downriver fails to deteriorate
  sufficiently fast to compensate for the influx of snowmelt. Much
  will depend on the strength and thickness of ice downriver.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
On Wednesday, there will be a large trough extending from the
Arctic south across the W Mainland and into the NPAC. Light south
flow will in place over the E Interior, with showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible. Given the amplified pattern, there may
remain some chances for snow over the Arctic, as well. Gradually,
a strong low over the Bering will move into the Gulf of AK
sometime on Friday. Over time, the south flow will transition to
SE flow aloft over the E Interior, bringing gradually warming
temps and continued daily afternoon showers with chances for
isolated thunderstorms.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher